- The Astros are +100 favorites vs the Guardians
- Astros vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Astros are 87-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-78 ATS.
Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 4-6, 5.58 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 13-9, 3.79 ERA
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+23.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+23.60 Units / 112% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 43 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 71 away games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 102 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+9.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 75 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 160 games (+12.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 80-80 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 0.71% ROI).
- 87-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 65-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.35 Units / -19.06% ROI
- 90-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +18 Units / 10.15% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 82-78 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 3.43% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 5.9% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -11.53% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 2.88% ROI
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +130 |
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .226 (24-for-106) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .397 (31 GB hits out of 78 GBs) against Justin Verlander this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (78/269) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .265 (49-for-185) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Ben Lively’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (102/572) against Ben Lively this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed an OPS of .983 (190 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .760 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are just 0-55 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 70-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 30-15 (.667) after a home win this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Guardians are 81-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians are 50-28 (.641) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are slugging .492 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,585/18,372 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (457/11,987) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,435 strikeouts in 13,025 PA’s (19%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (2106.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.6
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since last season is 392.3 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (140/160) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have walked 9 of 213 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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