- The Mariners are + favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 50-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-54 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 7-6, 4.44 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 8-9, 3.53 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -225 | O 7 +100 | + |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | + |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 38 games (+18.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+14.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+6.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 50-46 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 4.55% ROI).
- 50-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -6.28% ROI
- 38-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -20.63% ROI
- 55-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.35 Units / 12.55% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 44-54 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -12.08% ROI).
- 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -3.33% ROI
- 40-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.55 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 54-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 9.2% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan Singleton (HOU) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .380 (171 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (6/25) against Hunter Brown on low fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (98/162) against Hunter Brown on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has a strike rate of just 62% (1,059/1,698) this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 12th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (9 Total Bases / 59 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (21/127) against Bryce Miller this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (9-for-59) against Bryce Miller on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (492/712) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Astros are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 124-85 (.593) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 179-9 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 189-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 54-7 (.885) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 7-36 (.163) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 822 strikeouts in 4,663 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 501 strikeouts in 2,813 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .267 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mariners are batting just .231 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Mariners hitters have 669 strikeouts in 2,578 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .291 (446 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 387.8 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 45 of 870 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.14 (1182.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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