- The Mariners are + favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Houston Astros () visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 51-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-55 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 8-5, 3.65 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 7-7, 3.12 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | O | ||
| Mariners | U |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 39 games (+19.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 51-46 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 5.3% ROI).
- 51-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.5% ROI
- 38-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.85 Units / -21.53% ROI
- 56-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.35 Units / 13.36% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 44-55 against the Run Line (-16.3 Units / -12.77% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 40-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.75 Units / -18.4% ROI
- 55-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 10.04% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (176/284) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (917/1,965) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (51/68) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (153/245) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 12 of 457 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 32 of 1,227 batters (3%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 13 of 470 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 8 of 216 left-handed batters (4%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Astros are 247-174 (.587) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 176-25 (.876) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 189-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 179-9 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 102-18 (.850) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mariners are just 4-15 (.211) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 824 strikeouts in 4,667 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,242/15,987 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .202 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have 1,954 strikeouts in 7,258 PA’s (27%) against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 6 of 28 batters (21%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 16 of 125 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 45 of 879 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.66 (447.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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