- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Mariners
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Houston Astros (-130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+110) on Monday, May 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 26-28 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 3-2, 4.36 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 3-5, 3.53 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -115 | -130 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -105 | +110 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 26 games (+24.15 Units / 93% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+17.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+16.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+13.40 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+18.40 Units / 153% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+10.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 22-31 against the Run Line (-8.75 Units / -13.96% ROI).
- 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.1 Units / -19.66% ROI
- 21-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -18.15% ROI
- 29-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 9.95% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 26-28 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -8.8% ROI).
- 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -4.85% ROI
- 20-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -23.74% ROI
- 31-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.5 Units / 14.39% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jonathan Singleton (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 5.5 +155 | 5.5 -210 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 87% (26/30) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (26/35) against Framber Valdez — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (751/1,216) against Framber Valdez since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (60-for-312) against Framber Valdez when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .169 (20-for-118) against Bryce Miller this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .200 (90 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 against Bryce Miller vs left-handed batters this season — 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP– 91st Percentile. Left handed batters hit .303 (70-for-231) against him last season — tied for sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– seventh Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed a BABIP of .148 vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 30-24 (.556) after a road win since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Astros are 125-92 (.576) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Astros are 94-63 (.599) after a loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 95-15 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mariners are 51-31 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Mariners are 168-3 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 160-6 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 750 strikeouts in 4,291 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 102 strikeouts in 640 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 429 strikeouts in 2,441 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .509 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .368.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 415 strikeouts in 1,445 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have 548 strikeouts in 1,962 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 206 of 2,032 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .244 (475 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Mariners pitchers have walked 131 of 1,925 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 217 of 3,379 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 122 of 1,930 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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