- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-135) on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 24-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 27-28 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 1-5, 7.12 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 4-6, 3.29 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -115 | +115 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -105 | -135 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 27 games (+23.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+18.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+15.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+14.40 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+17.40 Units / 134% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+2.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+11.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 22-32 against the Run Line (-9.75 Units / -15.31% ROI).
- 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -21% ROI
- 21-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -19.68% ROI
- 30-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 11.44% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 27-28 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -7.28% ROI).
- 29-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -3.16% ROI
- 20-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -25.17% ROI
- 32-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.5 Units / 15.79% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .469 (38-for-81) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .318 — 0 Percentile.
The last hit on a Hunter Brown changeup was June 25th, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his changeup. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (95/155) against Hunter Brown on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (246 Total Bases / 334 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: .577 — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (93/285) against Luis Castillo this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 46% (38/83) against Luis Castillo in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 38% (28 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (18 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 13th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 112-75 (.599) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Astros are 94-63 (.599) after a loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Astros are 61-45 (.575) on the road since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Astros are 31-20 (.608) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 161-6 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 95-15 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mariners are 49-6 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners are 143-24 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 751 strikeouts in 4,294 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,960/14,369 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 103 strikeouts in 643 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 91% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have 137 strikeouts in 544 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 211 of 2,068 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .242 (484 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Mariners pitchers have walked 133 of 1,959 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 26 of 484 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 554 of 7,965 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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