- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Astros / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SCHN | TBS
The Houston Astros (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Tuesday, August 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Astros are 70-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 65-66 ATS.
Astros vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 3-3, 3.94 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-6, 3.48 ERA
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 23 away games (+50.90 Units / 221% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+16.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+13.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.15 Units / 64% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 114 games (+19.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.70 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 away games (+11.10 Units / 58% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games at home (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 56 games at home (+8.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 66-65 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 1.64% ROI).
- 70-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -4.62% ROI
- 52-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.9 Units / -21.57% ROI
- 76-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.55 Units / 12.78% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 65-66 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -2.35% ROI).
- 77-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -7.55% ROI
- 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -1.7% ROI
Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (46/180) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .245 (768 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .540 (769 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .716 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .559 (585 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 467 of Aaron Nola’s 1,016 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (59-for-177) against Aaron Nola versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .207 (158-for-762) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 91st Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (159/478) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are just 0-46 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Astros are 41-34 (.547) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 121-36 (.771) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 18-11 (.621) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are 7-2 (.778) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 11-107 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 67-12 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 901 strikeouts in 5,009 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,428/17,260 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (767/4,953 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .394 (236 PA’s) against LHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Phillies are batting .338 against LHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Phillies are batting .275 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.53 (2003.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have walked 1,002 of 11,000 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this month (23 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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