- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Rays
- Astros vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Rays TV Channel: SCHN | BSUN
The Houston Astros (-130) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+110) on Monday, August 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Astros are 62-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 58-59 ATS.
Astros vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 11-5, 3.45 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-6, 3.06 ERA
Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -120 | -130 |
| Rays | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 +100 | +110 |
Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+28.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Over in 20 of his last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 45 games (+21.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+13.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+15.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 114 games (+22.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 108 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+5.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 59-58 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 1.39% ROI).
- 62-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -5.26% ROI
- 47-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.1 Units / -20.4% ROI
- 67-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.05 Units / 11.6% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 58-59 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -3.81% ROI).
- 59-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -6.24% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -8.95% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.74% ROI
Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Curtis Mead (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 73% (61/83) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (179/295) against Framber Valdez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (208/347) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .038 (1-for-26) against Framber Valdez this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/133) against Taj Bradley on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (27/126) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (43-for-258) against Taj Bradley’s non-fastballs since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (49/138) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are just 3-9 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
The Astros are 117-32 (.785) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 75-53 (.586) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are 26-95 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Rays are 56-4 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Rays are just 23-46 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Rays are 16-10 (.615) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 870 strikeouts in 4,897 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,518/10,685 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .358 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% with runners in scoring position this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,143 of 16,331 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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