- The Astros are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Astros vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Astros / Reds TV Channel: SCHN | BSOH
The Houston Astros (-160) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+135) on Monday, September 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Astros are 75-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 76-62 ATS.
Astros vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 3-4, 4.19 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Julian Aguiar 1-0, 6.43 ERA
Astros vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | O 9 -115 | -160 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 9 -105 | +135 |
Astros vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 away games (+48.90 Units / 196% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+16.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+24.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 27 games (+20.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+15.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 120 games (+20.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 15 away games (+11.35 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+11.10 Units / 51% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games at home (+16.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 120 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+9.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games at home (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 47 games at home (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 70-67 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 3.39% ROI).
- 75-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -2.38% ROI
- 54-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.1 Units / -21.46% ROI
- 79-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.2 Units / 12.62% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 76-62 against the Run Line (+7.45 Units / 4.08% ROI).
- 65-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -6.88% ROI
- 65-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -4.85% ROI
- 65-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -4.53% ROI
Reds vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jason Heyward (HOU) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jason Heyward (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
| Julian Aguiar (CIN) | 3.5 +145 | 3.5 -200 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (54/198) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .246 (778 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .227 (22-for-97) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .352 (19 GB hits out of 54 GBs) against Justin Verlander this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .346 (9-for-26) against Julian Aguiar when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last three starts — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .210 — eighth Percentile.
Julian Aguiar has allowed an OPS of .970 (63 PA’s) in his last three starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .664 — fourth Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .500 against Julian Aguiar in his last three starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
43% of Julian Aguiar’s strikeouts are looking in his last three starts — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros are just 0-47 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Astros are 193-27 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-54 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 915 strikeouts in 5,042 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 3,192 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .840 (1,358 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .669.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 4.78 (2123.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Reds vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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