- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Brewers TV Channel: BSSO | BSWI
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Braves are 56-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 55-50 ATS.
Braves vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 0-0, 2.70 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 9-3, 3.60 ERA
Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | O 8 +100 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -120 | -125 |
Braves vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+16.90 Units / 211% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+15.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 away games (+12.10 Units / 130% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games at home (+20.40 Units / 102% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 90 games (+29.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 away games (+11.79 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 away games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 105 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 105 games (+8.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 46-58 against the Run Line (-13.75 Units / -11.17% ROI).
- 56-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -9.88% ROI
- 37-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.6 Units / -26.91% ROI
- 62-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.15 Units / 18.35% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 55-50 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 1.66% ROI).
- 60-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 6.47% ROI
- 56-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 8.16% ROI
- 43-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -16.2% ROI
Brewers vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Brewers vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -185 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grant Holmes has not allowed a home run in any of the last 23.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 66.2.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Grant Holmes this month (5 games) — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .120 (3-for-25) against Grant Holmes this month (5 games) — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 92nd Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed an OPS of just .367 (29 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (5 games) — 9th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .721 — 92nd Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (150/785) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (18-for-53) against Colin Rea on low fastballs this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: .268 — 16th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (27/149) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .466 (76 Total Bases / 163 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 14th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are just 7-14 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Braves are 29-51 (.362) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Braves are 45-111 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Brewers are 46-114 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 58-55 (.513) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Braves hitters are slugging .464 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Braves are batting .306 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 1,012 strikeouts in 4,242 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 69 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,029 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,442 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (1189.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 20 of 189 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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