- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: BSSE | SNY | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 54-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-52 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 13-3, 2.71 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 7-3, 3.56 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -115 | -120 |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -105 | +100 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+17.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 32 games (+17.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+14.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.55 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+31.00 Units / 172% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 30 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+12.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+9.90 Units / 89% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 86 games (+29.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 away games (+13.74 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 92 games (+17.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-56 against the Run Line (-12.85 Units / -11.07% ROI).
- 54-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.55 Units / -10.02% ROI
- 35-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.4 Units / -27.81% ROI
- 60-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.35 Units / 19.26% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 49-52 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -4.49% ROI).
- 53-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 1.28% ROI
- 53-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 5% ROI
- 43-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -13.49% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
20 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .208 (51 Total Bases / 245 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .353 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (37-for-245) against Chris Sale’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 35% (56 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (27/166) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (59/342) against Luis Severino this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .191 (30-for-157) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (180/892) against Luis Severino this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Braves are 45-110 (.290) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Braves are 50-60 (.455) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 52-27 (.658) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 6-38 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 38-11 (.776) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 42-6 (.875) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 7-32 (.179) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OBP of .373 (1,221 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (750/9,969) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters have 5 strikeouts in 12 PA’s (42%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Braves are batting .308 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are batting .409 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (11,256 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .562 (2,086 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have walked 50 of 891 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 392 of 3,882 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 84 of 907 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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