- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: BSSE | SNY
The Atlanta Braves (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 50-52 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 5-5, 4.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Braves | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 +100 | +115 |
Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -120 | -135 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 33 games (+18.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+16.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+15.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 games (+13.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.40 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+30.00 Units / 158% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+15.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+14.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 87 games (+30.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 away games (+14.79 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 away games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 8 away games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 93 games (+16.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-57 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -11.83% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -10.67% ROI
- 35-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.6 Units / -28.6% ROI
- 61-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.35 Units / 19.98% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 50-52 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -3.67% ROI).
- 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 53-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 3.87% ROI
- 44-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -12.45% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +130 |
Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 707 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (543/1,048) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (284/520) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (701/1,701) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .171 — 99th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (560/1,070) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed an OPS of just .450 (195 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 25 of 157 batters (16%) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Braves are 24-13 (.649) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 84-48 (.636) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Braves are 124-8 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 38-11 (.776) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 6-38 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Mets are 16-12 (.571) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .682 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .374 (1,226 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .822 (2,395 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,117 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Mets hitters are slugging .444 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,943 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have walked 50 of 901 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 395 of 3,919 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 86 of 917 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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