- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: ESPN
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+105) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 24-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 18-20 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 1-1, 5.53 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 2-2, 2.90 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 +100 | -125 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -120 | +105 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 22 games (+17.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+12.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.90 Units / 297% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+10.20 Units / 78% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.15 Units / 63% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 19-17 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 5.69% ROI).
- 24-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 7.77% ROI
- 12-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -30.03% ROI
- 22-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 22.25% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 18-20 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -4.07% ROI).
- 18-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -5.19% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -10.24% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 1.4% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (10-for-20) against Bryce Elder on fastballs away this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Bryce Elder has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (22/44) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (7/49) against Bryce Elder this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has walked 8 of 53 batters (15%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (18/112) against Luis Severino this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (77/169) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 11 of 91 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 49-46 (.516) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Braves are 17-57 (.230) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 44-19 (.698) after a home win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 7-135 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are just 9-44 (.170) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mets are 154-16 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mets are just 3-84 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .323 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .610 (774 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .287 (774 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mets have been successful on 62% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.9 MPH (836 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.9 MPH this season (836 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Braves pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 169 of 1,465 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 43 of 343 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 8 of 46 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
