- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Reds
- Braves vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Reds TV Channel: BSSO | BSOH
The Atlanta Braves (-225) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+180) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Braves are 82-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 86-67 ATS.
Braves vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 17-3, 2.38 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Julian Aguiar 2-0, 4.88 ERA
Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -135 | O 9 -120 | -225 |
| Reds | +1.5 +110 | U 9 +100 | +180 |
Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 66.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 15 away games (+25.60 Units / 171% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 36 games (+22.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 80% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.30 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 38 games (+25.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 138 games (+34.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 135 games (+13.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+8.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games at home (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 70-82 against the Run Line (-15.75 Units / -8.54% ROI).
- 82-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.25 Units / -9.48% ROI
- 57-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.9 Units / -24.65% ROI
- 90-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.1 Units / 16.07% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 86-67 against the Run Line (+10 Units / 4.9% ROI).
- 74-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -2.64% ROI
- 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.62% ROI
- 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.5% ROI
Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -225 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Amed Rosario (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +115 |
| Julian Aguiar (CIN) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
32 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .247 (57 Total Bases / 231 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 98th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 32% (219 SO in 681 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of just .494 (252 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julian Aguiar has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to September 2nd — Sean Manaea has the longest active streak at 7.
Julian Aguiar has a strikeout rate of just 17% (4 SO in 24 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 10th lowest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 25% — 19th Percentile.
Julian Aguiar has a strikeout rate of just 26% (8 SO in 31 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Julian Aguiar has allowed an OPS of just .337 (28 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .716 — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 38-37 (.507) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
The Braves are 26-16 (.619) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 85-39 (.685) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves are batting .269 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .457 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Braves had an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .152 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .149 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds hitters have 337 extra-base hits out of 860 total hits (39%) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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