- The Brewers are -105 favorites vs the Mets
- Brewers / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Friday, March 29, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Brewers are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 0-0 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | -105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -115 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s game with 51.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 73% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mark Canha has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 158 games (+6.70 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 20% (83/409) versus Freddy Peralta in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (455/1,356) against Freddy Peralta in the 2023 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 37% (237/640) against Freddy Peralta in the 2023 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 95th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta had a strike rate of just 60% (293/492) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH against his fastballs since the 2022 season (389 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (17/48) versus Jose Quintana on low breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (70/215) against Jose Quintana in the 2023 season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (205 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 25-23 (.521) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers were 23-10 (.697) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Brewers were 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets were just 11-60 (.155) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Mets were just 5-65 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters slugged just .366 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters drew 446 walks in 4,547 PA’s (10%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Brewers won 57% of games in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets scored first in just 43% of their road games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% at home since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .226 against Brewers pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents batted just .226 against Brewers pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers pitchers had 210 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2023 season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers won only 21% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 455.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Mets vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Aaron Ashby (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Out
- Elvis Peguero (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, Out
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