- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Brewers vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Nationals TV Channel: ATV+
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Friday, August 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Brewers are 61-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 62-47 ATS.
Brewers vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 4-8, 5.02 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 8-8, 3.46 ERA
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -120 | +105 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+15.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+14.10 Units / 157% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+14.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.05 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+17.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Irvin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Irvin has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 104 games (+12.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 108 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 108 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 80 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.95 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 101 games (+12.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 101 games (+7.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 56-52 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.35% ROI).
- 61-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.6 Units / 5.52% ROI
- 58-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.25 Units / 8.69% ROI
- 44-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.1 Units / -16.79% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 62-47 against the Run Line (+8.13 Units / 5.68% ROI).
- 49-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 4.07% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.4% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.22 Units / -6.8% ROI
Nationals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (MIL) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .674 (29 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .407 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Frankie Montas this season is 380.7 feet — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 397.7
Frankie Montas has walked 22 of 165 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OBP of .398 (113 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .286 — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (491/1,393) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (151/419) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (29/174) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (708/2,042) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 28-22 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Brewers are 59-17 (.776) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Brewers are 22-13 (.629) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 83-129 (.392) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 53-212 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,028 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Brewers hitters have 35 extra-base hits out of 126 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have drawn 413 walks in 4,276 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .330 (4,133 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 574 strikeouts in 3,037 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .958 (1,869 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 38% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (1189.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (2402.2 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
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