- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Brewers vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSWI | MLBN
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Saturday, August 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Brewers are 62-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 62-48 ATS.
Brewers vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-7, 4.92 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 1-4, 4.76 ERA
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -115 | +105 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+15.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+14.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+13.10 Units / 131% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+18.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 109 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 109 games (+8.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 102 games (+6.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 57-52 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.36% ROI).
- 62-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.6 Units / 6.19% ROI
- 59-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.25 Units / 9.46% ROI
- 44-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.3 Units / -17.62% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 62-48 against the Run Line (+6.48 Units / 4.47% ROI).
- 49-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 3.08% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.85 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.42 Units / -7.71% ROI
Nationals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Nationals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (338/563) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .466 (83 Total Bases / 178 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 382.6 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 398.6
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (91/326) against Aaron Civale this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has limited playing time.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Brewers are 32-71 (.311) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 22-13 (.629) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 35-33 (.515) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 83-130 (.390) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 53-213 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .330 (3,141 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Brewers hitters have 35 extra-base hits out of 126 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 575 strikeouts in 3,045 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Nationals have scored first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (2411.2 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
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