- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Nationals
- Brewers vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Brewers are 62-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 63-48 ATS.
Brewers vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 6-4, 3.11 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-6, 4.34 ERA
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -130 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -105 | +110 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+15.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+12.10 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+17.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+10.10 Units / 92% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 106 games (+14.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 110 games (+8.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 110 games (+7.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 82 games (+6.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 103 games (+11.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 103 games (+7.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 57-53 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.66% ROI).
- 62-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 5.28% ROI
- 60-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 10.2% ROI
- 44-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.3 Units / -18.29% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 63-48 against the Run Line (+7.48 Units / 5.11% ROI).
- 50-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 3.91% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -0.7% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.42 Units / -8.46% ROI
Nationals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Nationals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Harold Ramirez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Nationals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 56 of Tobias Myers’ 137 elevated fastballs out of the zone (41%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 41% (62/152) against Tobias Myers on changeups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 51% — third Percentile.
Tobias Myers has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (77/152) of the time this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 61% — fifth Percentile.
Tobias Myers has located his fastball up for a strike 69% (175/252) of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has 27 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 8th most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (22/136) against Mitchell Parker when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (28/204) against Mitchell Parker on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 69% (322/464) in two strike counts this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 46-117 (.282) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Brewers are 28-22 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Brewers are 24-17 (.585) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 53-213 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are just 84-130 (.393) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,581/16,420 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have drawn 741 walks in 7,705 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 575 strikeouts in 3,045 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .381 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (784.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (1206.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .344 (2,413 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
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