- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 89-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 82-74 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 8-6, 3.04 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 8-8, 4.17 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -120 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 8 +100 | +120 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games (+35.80 Units / 211% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+16.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Tobias Myers has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.30 Units / 308% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.20 Units / 112% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+10.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 156 games (+10.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 152 games (+10.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 86 of their last 156 games (+6.02 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+6.75 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.25 Units / 40% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 78-78 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -2.46% ROI).
- 89-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 5.3% ROI
- 80-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 66-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.2 Units / -12.86% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 82-74 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 0.84% ROI).
- 73-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -6.5% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -6.4% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -1.91% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Blake Perkins (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tobias Myers has allowed a slugging percentage of .727 (32 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OPS of just .455 (114 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .729 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (15-for-98) against Tobias Myers with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 97th Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OBP of just .230 (113 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (44/277) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (824/1,984) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 12 opportunities (33%) this month (3 games) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (569/1,305) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 37-83 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 45-26 (.634) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Brewers are 81-56 (.591) after a loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Brewers are 64-28 (.696) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 9-30 (.231) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Pirates are just 6-43 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,648 of their 5,947 plate appearances (28%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .281 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,332 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .304 (5,368 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters have 89 strikeouts in 255 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (1582.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .287 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 50% of their games on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 465.8
Pirates pitchers have walked 14 of 103 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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