- The Brewers are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 90-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 82-75 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 11-8, 3.71 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | +125 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 58.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games (+35.80 Units / 211% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 41 games (+15.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+13.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.30 Units / 226% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.20 Units / 112% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+9.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 157 games (+11.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 153 games (+11.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 87 of their last 157 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 87 of their last 157 games (+7.12 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 118 games (+5.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-78 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 90-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 5.76% ROI
- 81-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.3 Units / 5.41% ROI
- 66-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.25 Units / -13.39% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 82-75 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.17% ROI).
- 73-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -7.01% ROI
- 75-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 77-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -2.51% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (573/980) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (881/1,442) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — third Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 31% (168 SO in 548 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 55% (631/1,156) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has walked 55 of 452 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 59 of 487 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .220 (13-for-59) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (62/120) against Luis Ortiz when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 51-128 (.285) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Brewers are 37-83 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 45-26 (.634) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Brewers are 44-37 (.543) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 6-43 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 9-30 (.231) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Pirates are just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have drawn 160 walks in 1,554 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .303 (5,371 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .177 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,333 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .191 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.19 (916.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (2845.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Brewers pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,678 of 18,476 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 13 of 103 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.51 (2191.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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