- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Thursday, September 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 90-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 83-75 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 7-9, 4.54 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 11-11, 4.25 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+34.80 Units / 193% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+19.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+17.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+12.35 Units / 112% ROI)
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.30 Units / 226% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+9.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 154 games (+10.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 158 games (+9.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 87 of their last 158 games (+8.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 87 of their last 158 games (+6.12 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+13.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 119 games (+6.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-79 against the Run Line (-4.9 Units / -2.37% ROI).
- 90-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.95 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.2 Units / 4.74% ROI
- 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.25 Units / -12.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 83-75 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 0.66% ROI).
- 74-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -6.21% ROI
- 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.37% ROI
- 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -1.92% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Aaron Civale has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to September 3rd — Bryan Woo has the longest active streak at 7.
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .485 (114 Total Bases / 235 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .370 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale this season is 384.5 feet — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .561 (133 Total Bases / 237 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .925 (265 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (74-for-237) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .364 (264 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 37-83 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 51-128 (.285) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Brewers are 123-89 (.580) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Brewers are 48-5 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 6-43 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 30-17 (.638) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .238 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .280 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .306 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .303 (5,380 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .683 (5,380 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.18 (924.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,679 of 18,508 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.71 (1576.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 50% of their games on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .248 against Pirates pitchers with runners on base this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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