- The Twins are -160 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Twins TV Channel: Roku
The Milwaukee Brewers (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Brewers are 56-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 46-51 ATS.
Brewers vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-7, 4.95 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 6-6, 3.53 ERA
Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -110 | +135 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -160 |
Brewers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 away games (+19.00 Units / 136% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 98 games (+12.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 94 games (+11.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 98 games (+9.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+6.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 98 games (+5.19 Units / 4% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 51-47 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.09% ROI).
- 56-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 7.49% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.75 Units / 9.11% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.4 Units / -16.94% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 46-51 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -4.71% ROI).
- 54-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.19% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -7.51% ROI
Twins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Twins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (101/295) against Aaron Civale this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed an OPS of .849 (171 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .656 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .247 (40-for-162) against Aaron Civale’s non-fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 15th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has struck out 29% (56/196) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 88th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (41/132) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has walked 9 of 224 left-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .489 (200 Total Bases / 409 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — sixth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has walked 6 of 171 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 41-3 (.932) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 109-78 (.583) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Brewers are 22-16 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Twins are 15-28 (.349) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are 54-17 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .621.
The Twins are 43-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Twins are 182-4 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 96 walks in 930 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Brewers are batting just .238 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .270 (2,046 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.76 (1154.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.75 (2313.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 246 of 3,595 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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