- The Cubs are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
- Cubs vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+110) on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 80-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 77-80 ATS.
Cubs vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 5-5, 3.03 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Tanner Banks 2-2, 3.77 ERA
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -105 | -130 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -115 | +110 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+20.00 Units / 118% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+18.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+15.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games at home (+11.70 Units / 98% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 away games (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 away games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 69 games at home (+14.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+12.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 68 games at home (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 76-81 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -8.65% ROI).
- 80-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.43% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.45% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.13% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 77-80 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.53% ROI).
- 93-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 0.48% ROI
- 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -6.5% ROI
- 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -2.73% ROI
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Tanner Banks (CWS) | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (3,320/4,642) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (1,441/3,209) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (42 Total Bases / 185 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .388 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (2,019/4,642) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Banks allowed a .550 SLG vs right-handed batters last season — second worst among qualified RPs– second Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .265 vs right-handed batters in the 2022 season — 10th best among qualified RPs– 91st Percentile.
Tanner Banks has thrown elevated sliders36% of the time (92/256) this season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Banks has a strikeout rate of just 17% (42 SO in 248 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Banks has a strikeout rate of just 18% (30 SO in 167 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 63-12 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Cubs are 24-13 (.649) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Cubs are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 53-25 (.679) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 102-57 (.642) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Phillies are 12-116 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .281 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .327 (6,305 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .303 (2,790 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Cubs are batting .164 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,854 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .746 (8,473 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 64% at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .306 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (705.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Cubs have allowed 3.50 runs per game (273/78) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 77 double plays in 1,098 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this month (21 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
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