- The Rangers are -115 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs / Rangers TV Channel: ESPN | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-115) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Arlington, TX.
Cubs vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -210 | O 8 +100 | -105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -120 | -115 |
Cubs vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s game with 51.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tucker Barnhart has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Evan Carter has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bubba Thompson has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 171 games (+28.43 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 171 games (+26.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 171 games (+24.63 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+14.68 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele located 46% of his pitches inside (824/1,808) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele located 45% of his pitches inside (324/715) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele located 49% of his pitches inside (1,033/2,100) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele located 43% of his pitches inside (1,150/2,678) in the 2023 season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nathan Eovaldi allowed a BABIP of .230 vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .293 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (25/171) versus Nathan Eovaldi on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 17% (33/194) against Nathan Eovaldi in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has an average spin rate of 2010.4 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2529.5 — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs were just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Rangers were 32-13 (.711) after a home win in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Rangers are just 75-51 (.595) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Rangers were 24-20 (.545) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Rangers were 50-31 (.617) at home in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Cubs batted .287 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs batted just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Cubs hitters had an OPS of .868 (319 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .844 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Rangers hitters had an OBP of .349 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Rangers hitters had an OBP of .269 (3,336 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Rangers hitters slugged .495 at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 43% of their games since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 22% against Rangers pitchers in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 134 times since the 2022 season — 5th most in MLB.
Rangers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, Out
- Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Josh Jung (Texas Rangers): Calf, Out
- Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Corey Seager (Texas Rangers): Groin, Out
- Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
- Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out
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