- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Reds
- Guardians vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Reds TV Channel: BSGL | BSOH
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on Tuesday, June 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Guardians are 42-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 37-29 ATS.
Guardians vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-3, 4.15 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Brent Suter 0-0, 3.82 ERA
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -125 |
| Reds | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -115 | +105 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 42 games (+37.10 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+20.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+15.70 Units / 196% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+15.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games (+15.87 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 64 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games at home (+13.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 36-28 against the Run Line (+13.3 Units / 17.62% ROI).
- 42-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.87 Units / 18.8% ROI
- 31-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.21% ROI
- 28-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -8.3% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 37-29 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 6.49% ROI).
- 32-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -9.51% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.21% ROI
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .352 — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OPS of 1.743 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .619 — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 17 of 108 batters (16%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (32 Total Bases / 46 ABs) over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .374 — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brent Suter has an average fastball velocity of just 86.3 MPH this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.4 — first Percentile.
Brent Suter has an average fastball velocity of just 86.8 MPH since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.7 — first Percentile.
Brent Suter has an average fastball velocity of just 86.7 MPH since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.8 — second Percentile.
Brent Suter has allowed a slugging percentage of .960 (24 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Guardians are 37-131 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Guardians are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 51-52 (.495) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,898 strikeouts in 10,443 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .132 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Reds are batting just .171 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have allowed 0.72 runs per game (46/64) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers since last season is 392.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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