- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Reds TV Channel: BSGL | BSOH | ESPN+
The Cleveland Guardians (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Guardians are 43-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 37-30 ATS.
Guardians vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 4-1, 3.77 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 6-2, 2.96 ERA
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -125 | +100 |
| Reds | -1.5 +160 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 43 games (+36.10 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+19.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+16.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+14.70 Units / 163% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 65 games (+16.87 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+14.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 21 games at home (+14.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 37-28 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 19.35% ROI).
- 43-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.87 Units / 19.72% ROI
- 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.95 Units / -1.32% ROI
- 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -6.77% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 37-30 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 4.39% ROI).
- 32-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -4.27% ROI
- 30-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -10.85% ROI
- 34-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 1.16% ROI
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 10% (3/31) against Tanner Bibee when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (18-for-108) against Tanner Bibee when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 93rd Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OBP of just .231 (117 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .390 (46-for-118) against Tanner Bibee in non-two strike counts this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — fifth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (223/698) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Nick Lodolo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: .326 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .369 (314 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 13% (2/15) against Nick Lodolo — 5th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Guardians are 37-131 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Guardians are 36-1 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .887.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 47-19 (.712) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Reds are 33-27 (.550) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,902 strikeouts in 10,470 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,107 strikeouts in 5,886 PA’s (19%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .132 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .331 (841 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Reds are batting just .172 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.72 runs per game (47/65) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers this season is 385.6 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 395.9
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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