- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Mariners are 43-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 39-30 ATS.
Mariners vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 5-5, 3.50 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 3-3, 4.09 ERA
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+17.10 Units / 190% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+14.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+9.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.65 Units / 78% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 62 games (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.02 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+14.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+6.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 36-38 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- 43-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 5.64% ROI
- 27-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.55 Units / -25.88% ROI
- 44-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.9 Units / 17.06% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 39-30 against the Run Line (+12.7 Units / 15.07% ROI).
- 44-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.02 Units / 16.76% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -3.91% ROI
Guardians vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Rojas (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has allowed a BABIP of .171 vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed a batting average of just .200 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 94th Percentile and .303 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for sixth worst among non-qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (57-for-297) against Bryce Miller this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (33/94) against Bryce Miller with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie had a first-pitch strike rate of just 36% (8/22) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 38 of 296 batters (13%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 21 of 147 right-handed batters (14%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed a slugging percentage of .769 (20 Total Bases / 26 ABs) against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 171-7 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 98-16 (.860) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 19-18 (.514) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 12-9 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Guardians are 8-9 (.471) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Guardians are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 25-141 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 61 strikeouts in 190 PA’s (32%) against LHP this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners are batting just .154 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,915 strikeouts in 10,566 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 167 strikeouts in 1,094 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .671 (4,277 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 31 of 657 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (1099.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Mariners pitchers have walked 128 of 2,112 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.68 runs per game (47/69) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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