- The Mariners are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Mariners vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Thursday, June 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Mariners are 44-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 40-31 ATS.
Mariners vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 6-7, 3.33 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 5.47 ERA
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 8 +100 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -120 | -110 |
Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 away games (+21.40 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+14.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 47 games (+32.10 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+16.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 71 games (+14.62 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+13.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 37-39 against the Run Line (-4.7 Units / -4.74% ROI).
- 44-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 5.73% ROI
- 29-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.55 Units / -22.73% ROI
- 44-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.7 Units / 13.98% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 40-31 against the Run Line (+13.15 Units / 15.24% ROI).
- 45-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.62 Units / 15.8% ROI
- 34-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.59% ROI
- 32-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -6.64% ROI
Guardians vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .141 (14-for-99) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .206 — 86th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (135/414) against Luis Castillo this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
44% of Luis Castillo’s called strikeouts are elevated this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 6 of 135 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (68 Total Bases / 102 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .626 (67 Total Bases / 107 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .541 (93 Total Bases / 172 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .382 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (6/51) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 99-16 (.861) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 172-7 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 39-10 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Mariners are 59-10 (.855) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 37-135 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 8-10 (.444) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Guardians are 51-8 (.864) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Guardians are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have 562 strikeouts in 2,012 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mariners hitters have 74 strikeouts in 219 PA’s (34%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,779 strikeouts in 14,921 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .236 (674 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Mariners pitchers have walked 34 of 674 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (1099.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10 of 43 batters (23%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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