- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Mariners vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Rays TV Channel: RTNW | BSUN
The Seattle Mariners (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Mariners are 45-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 37-42 ATS.
Mariners vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 6-8, 3.63 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 2-5, 4.23 ERA
Mariners vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -110 | -125 |
| Rays | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Mariners vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+16.40 Units / 102% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+16.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 away games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.35 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+12.50 Units / 208% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 26 away games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 76 games (+22.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in their last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 38-43 against the Run Line (-8.7 Units / -8.27% ROI).
- 45-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.23% ROI
- 32-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -20.27% ROI
- 46-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.6 Units / 11.9% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 37-42 against the Run Line (-7.5 Units / -7.16% ROI).
- 39-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -9.52% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -6.83% ROI
Rays vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell (TB) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .441 (90 Total Bases / 204 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — second Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .513 (20 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — ninth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 42% (48 SO in 113 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .144 (15-for-104) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .208 — 89th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Zack Littell’s 22 breaking pitch strikeouts (36%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .472 (25-for-53) against Zack Littell when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .320 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (30/104) against Zack Littell in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Zack Littell has thrown his slider 48% of the time (108/225) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are 173-8 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Mariners are 183-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners are 100-16 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are just 18-38 (.321) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Rays are just 11-24 (.314) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .212 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Mariners hitters have 16 extra-base hits out of 72 total hits (just 22%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Mariners are batting just .049 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have 178 strikeouts in 702 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays are batting .264 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 612 of 8,888 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,059 of 14,874 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 191 of 2,882 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.48 (355.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rays vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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