- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNY
The New York Mets (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Monday, May 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Mets are 21-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 28-19 ATS.
Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 0-1, 2.25 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 2-2, 3.06 ERA
Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 45 games (+13.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 112% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 15 games at home (+28.00 Units / 187% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+13.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+9.25 Units / 132% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 away games (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.82 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 21-25 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -7.83% ROI).
- 21-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -9.19% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.41% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -8.33% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 28-19 against the Run Line (+11.25 Units / 19.28% ROI).
- 30-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.82 Units / 17.7% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -2.4% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -6.13% ROI
Guardians vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .326 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (317/585) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 18% (202/1,091) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 8% (2/25) against Ben Lively on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed an OBP of .462 (26 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .417 (10-for-24) against Ben Lively over the last 14 days — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (24/91) against Ben Lively this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are just 4-89 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 76-12 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Mets are just 8-82 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 9-85 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .207 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .799 (331 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.049.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .609 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .243 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,613 strikeouts in 14,020 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .366 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 54 of 417 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 205 of 1,794 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 194 of 1,829 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Guardians pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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