- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNY
The New York Mets (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Mets are 21-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 29-19 ATS.
Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser 0-3, 7.30 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-4, 5.17 ERA
Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -115 | -130 |
Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 46 games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+13.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 16 games at home (+27.00 Units / 169% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 away games (+3.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.82 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 21-26 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -10.68% ROI).
- 21-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -10.95% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -2.61% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -6.11% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 29-19 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 21.65% ROI).
- 31-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.82 Units / 18.95% ROI
- 23-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -4.42% ROI
- 23-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -4.1% ROI
Guardians vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Adrian Houser (NYM) | 3.5 +160 | 3.5 -210 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has walked 23 of 157 batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (505/703) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (51/86) against Adrian Houser when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (126/616) against Adrian Houser since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .460 (87-for-189) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .335 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .735 (114 Total Bases / 155 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .303 (20-for-66) against Carlos Carrasco when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 10th Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has a strikeout rate of just 14% (11 SO in 76 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mets are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 8-141 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are just 8-83 (.088) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 9-85 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are 12-146 (.076) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .609 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .803 (340 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.050.
The Mets are batting just .207 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .246 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have just 1,842 strikeouts in 10,111 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 55 of 425 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 207 of 1,824 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 195 of 1,837 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 16 of 109 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .180 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 21% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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