- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Mariners TV Channel: ESPN
The New York Mets (+120) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-140) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Mets are 61-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 52-66 ATS.
Mets vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 7-5, 4.04 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 9-11, 3.49 ERA
Mets vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -140 |
Mets vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+33.50 Units / 223% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+22.70 Units / 227% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+13.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 63 of their last 108 games (+9.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 61 games at home (+20.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 52 games at home (+3.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 57-60 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -3.77% ROI).
- 61-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI
- 57-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 54-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -6.3% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 52-66 against the Run Line (-17.2 Units / -11.6% ROI).
- 62-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -5.22% ROI
- 49-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -16.87% ROI
- 65-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 8.66% ROI
Mariners vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +125 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (35/194) against Luis Severino this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (203/1,019) against Luis Severino this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (71/387) against Luis Severino this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (228/544) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed a just .309 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for sixth best)– 92nd Percentile and .475 vs left-handed batters this season (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.
Luis Castillo allowed a batting average of just .198 vs right-handed batters (tied for seventh best)– 91st Percentile and .282 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for fourth worst among qualified SPs)– ninth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .438 (7-for-16) against Luis Castillo when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .251 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .198 (55-for-278) against Luis Castillo this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 91st Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Mets are 6-45 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Mets are just 48-6 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .943.
The Mets are 12-18 (.400) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Mets are just 44-11 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Mariners are 38-4 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 105-19 (.847) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mariners are 186-11 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are just 5-18 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .777 (1,225 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Mets hitters have 118 extra-base hits out of 289 total hits (41%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters are slugging .449 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Mets are batting .246 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Mariners are batting just .213 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .222 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 233 of 2,459 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,031 of 10,546 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners have allowed 3.06 runs per game (190/62) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 22% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .278 (4,222 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mariners pitchers have walked 693 of 10,239 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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