- The Brewers are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Brewers TV Channel: MAS2 | BSWI
The Washington Nationals (+180) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-225) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Nationals are 42-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 49-45 ATS.
Nationals vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jackson Rutledge 0-0, 9.01 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 6-4, 3.97 ERA
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -125 | +180 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | -225 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+8.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 86 games (+6.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 86 games (+3.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+12.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games at home (+12.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+11.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 90 games (+10.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 52-42 against the Run Line (+4.18 Units / 3.43% ROI).
- 42-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 3.54% ROI
- 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.72 Units / -1.66% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 49-45 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.1% ROI).
- 54-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.35 Units / 9.66% ROI
- 50-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.8 Units / 7.59% ROI
- 39-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.95 Units / -15.34% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .197 (77-for-391) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 59% (345/588) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (273/822) against Freddy Peralta this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 30% (61/205) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 161-216 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 62-105 (.371) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are just 53-205 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 36-15 (.706) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers are 45-110 (.290) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Brewers are 22-16 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 28-15 (.651) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .626 (1,017 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .946 (1,749 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters have just 552 strikeouts in 2,885 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .237 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,603 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Brewers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1142.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have 119 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 5th fewest in MLB.
The Brewers have won 50% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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