- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Brewers Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Brewers TV Channel: MAS2 | BSWI
The Washington Nationals (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-130) on Saturday, July 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Nationals are 43-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 49-46 ATS.
Nationals vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-5, 3.46 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Dallas Keuchel 0-0, 4.61 ERA
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -130 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 87 games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 away games (+7.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 87 games (+5.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 47 away games (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 95 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 53-42 against the Run Line (+5.33 Units / 4.33% ROI).
- 43-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 5.81% ROI
- 43-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -8.27% ROI
- 47-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.72 Units / -0.69% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 49-46 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 54-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 7.2% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.95 Units / -14.22% ROI
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel (MIL) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of 39% (7 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 11th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 67% of Mitchell Parker’s pitches (265/395) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has walked 1 of 51 batters (2%) in his last two starts — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has walked 1 of 51 batters (2%) this month (2 games) — tied for 4th best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dallas Keuchel has a strike rate of just 49% (85/172) this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has a strike rate of just 49% (85/172) this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has walked 6 of 31 right-handed batters (19%) this month (2 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has walked 7 of 42 batters (17%) this month (2 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 62-105 (.371) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are just 21-32 (.396) after a home win since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 53-205 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 36-16 (.692) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers are 35-32 (.522) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Brewers are 45-111 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 289 total hits (just 30%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,149 strikeouts in 10,758 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 229 extra-base hits out of 824 total hits (just 28%) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,527/15,845 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,721 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.75 (2283.1 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 7 of 53 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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