- The Cardinals are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Cardinals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Nationals are 47-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 52-50 ATS.
Nationals vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-8, 4.18 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 10-6, 3.54 ERA
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+14.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 45 games (+33.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+27.45 Units / 98% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+15.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+10.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 95 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+8.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 away games (+2.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 41 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+3.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-46 against the Run Line (+4.58 Units / 3.41% ROI).
- 47-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 5.45% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.32 Units / -2.91% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 52-50 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.74% ROI).
- 53-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -9.46% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.5% ROI
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -175 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (81/238) against MacKenzie Gore on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (208/698) against MacKenzie Gore on pitches in the strike zone since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (35/75) this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (92/281) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (98/262) against Sonny Gray this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 35% (56 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 60% (131 SO in 219 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 54% (71 SO in 131 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 65-107 (.378) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Nationals are just 53-209 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 11-105 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Cardinals are just 23-35 (.397) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Cardinals are just 6-21 (.222) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Cardinals are just 8-116 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 568 strikeouts in 2,988 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .950 (1,809 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,120 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Cardinals are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 5 of 173 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Zack Thompson (St. Louis Cardinals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Steven Matz (St. Louis Cardinals): Back, 60-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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