- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MASN
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-160) on Saturday, June 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 26-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 33-24 ATS.
Nationals vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 4-2, 3.51 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 4-2, 2.80 ERA
Nationals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +135 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -160 |
Nationals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+23.90 Units / 120% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+13.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 35 games (+33.20 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+19.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 48 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 48 games (+9.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 away games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games (+15.97 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 34-22 against the Run Line (+9.48 Units / 13.2% ROI).
- 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 15.66% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -12.37% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.38 Units / 3.83% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 33-24 against the Run Line (+13.35 Units / 19.49% ROI).
- 38-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.97 Units / 21.36% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 4.03% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.65 Units / -12.29% ROI
Guardians vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Guardians vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nick Senzel (WAS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jesse Winker (WAS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has walked 1 of 72 batters (1%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 8th — the longest active streak is 5.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of 39% (7 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 69% (183/265) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (21/47) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Ben Lively has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (21/47) over the last 14 days — lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Ben Lively allowed a batting average of .310 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– seventh Percentile and just .150 vs left-handed batters this season (third best among non-qualified SPs)– 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — third best among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP– 97th Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 55-96 (.364) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are just 24-44 (.353) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians are 25-137 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Guardians are 9-87 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 36-130 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .640 (604 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,872 strikeouts in 10,281 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 in righty-righty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s in the 2023 season (222/6,096) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .358 (1,923 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .353 (3,338 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.75 runs per game (43/57) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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