- The Guardians are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MASN
The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-225) on Friday, May 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 26-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 32-24 ATS.
Nationals vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-5, 6.12 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 3-1, 4.04 ERA
Nationals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -110 | +180 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -110 | -225 |
Nationals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 62.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games (+24.90 Units / 131% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+14.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+14.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 34 games (+34.20 Units / 101% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+18.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 71% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 47 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games (+14.97 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 34-21 against the Run Line (+10.53 Units / 14.88% ROI).
- 26-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.9 Units / 17.73% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -14.27% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.48 Units / 5.7% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 32-24 against the Run Line (+12.35 Units / 18.34% ROI).
- 37-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.97 Units / 20.65% ROI
- 28-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 2.5% ROI
- 24-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -10.71% ROI
Guardians vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 6.5 +140 | 6.5 -185 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .321 (195-for-608) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .320 (113-for-353) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .864 (660 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .654 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .365 (31-for-85) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .405 (17-for-42) against Tanner Bibee when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .405 (17-for-42) against Tanner Bibee when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OPS of 1.184 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .655 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 28% (51/184) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Nationals are just 145-197 (.424) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 46-69 (.400) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians are 36-130 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Guardians are 25-137 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Guardians are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Guardians are 9-87 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals hitters have just 476 strikeouts in 2,472 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,872 strikeouts in 10,272 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians are batting just .257 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Guardians pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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