- The Phillies are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MAS2 | NSPA
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Thursday, August 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 55-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 60-60 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 6-6, 3.85 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 11-5, 2.80 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | +240 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | -300 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 69.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 38 games (+16.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+13.40 Units / 112% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 113 games (+10.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 113 games (+7.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 58 away games (+3.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+16.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 52 games at home (+15.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 68-53 against the Run Line (+6.18 Units / 3.86% ROI).
- 55-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 3.7% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.87 Units / -8.84% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 60-60 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.41% ROI).
- 70-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.75% ROI
- 56-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -7.16% ROI
- 59-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.21% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Weston Wilson (PHI) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (9/36) against Mitchell Parker in his last two starts — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (9/39) against Mitchell Parker this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 20.2.
Mitchell Parker has 30 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 7th most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .152 (35-for-230) against Zack Wheeler this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .222 (51 Total Bases / 230 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (30-for-292) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,546/3,650) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 55-217 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are 12-6 (.667) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Nationals are just 174-227 (.434) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are 60-10 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,160 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .959 (1,959 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .695 (5,107 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .255 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 64% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,441 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 89% of their games (69.3% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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