- The Phillies are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MAS2 | WCAU
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-275) on Friday, August 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 55-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-60 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 2-12, 6.01 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-6, 3.64 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +115 | O 9 -105 | +220 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | U 9 -115 | -275 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 71.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 39 games (+15.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+13.40 Units / 112% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 50 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 114 games (+9.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 114 games (+6.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 59 away games (+2.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 51 games at home (+17.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 games at home (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 61 of their last 104 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 52 games at home (+7.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 68-54 against the Run Line (+5.18 Units / 3.21% ROI).
- 55-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 2.89% ROI
- 61-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 0.75% ROI
- 55-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.97 Units / -9.58% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 61-60 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.72% ROI).
- 71-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -1.21% ROI
- 57-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -6.36% ROI
- 59-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -3.02% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Weston Wilson (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Weston Wilson (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .314 (224-for-714) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 5.98 (131.0 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.71 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .241 (58-for-241) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .508 (265 Total Bases / 522 ABs) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 649 of Aaron Nola’s 1,409 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 177 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .329 (53-for-161) against Aaron Nola versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (343/1,001) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .247 (788 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 33-53 (.384) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 55-79 (.410) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Nationals are just 113-150 (.430) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 40-21 (.656) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Phillies are 61-10 (.859) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .957 (1,966 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
Nationals hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,165 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .384 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 65% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .255 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,462 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .345 (3,928 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .237 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
