- The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MAS2 | NSPA
The Washington Nationals (+185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 55-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-61 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 7-10, 4.47 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 8-8, 3.59 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -105 | +185 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 9 -115 | -225 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 40 games (+14.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+9.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 115 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 115 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 60 away games (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 52 games at home (+18.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 54 games at home (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 61 of their last 105 games (+10.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 games at home (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 69-54 against the Run Line (+6.33 Units / 3.9% ROI).
- 55-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 2.09% ROI
- 61-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 56-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.97 Units / -8.77% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 61-61 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.66% ROI).
- 72-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.69% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -2.24% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (832/1,442) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (260/924) against MacKenzie Gore since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (300/546) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (150/445) against MacKenzie Gore on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (243/413) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .377 (87-for-231) against Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (101/164) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (40 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 55-219 (.201) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Nationals are just 33-53 (.384) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 55-79 (.410) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are 62-10 (.861) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 2,296 strikeouts in 11,527 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .958 (1,971 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .260 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 65% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .255 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,486 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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