- The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Pirates
- Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: MASN | SNPT | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 62-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 76-63 ATS.
Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 9-11, 4.10 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-7, 4.43 ERA
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +170 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -210 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+16.30 Units / 116% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+22.40 Units / 448% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+15.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+9.60 Units / 137% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 67 away games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 100 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games at home (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 78-61 against the Run Line (+7.88 Units / 4.33% ROI).
- 62-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 65-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -5.33% ROI
- 67-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.37 Units / -3.49% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 76-63 against the Run Line (+8.81 Units / 4.88% ROI).
- 65-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -6.14% ROI
- 67-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 67-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.72 Units / -3.77% ROI
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Juan Yepez (WSH) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jake Irvin (WSH) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 21% (112/533) against Jake Irvin this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (285/1,032) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (182/535) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (239/658) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (55/170) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .526 (182 Total Bases / 346 ABs) on breaking pitches since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .374 — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (133 Total Bases / 361 ABs) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .269 — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 15% (28 SO in 192 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Nationals are just 56-227 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Nationals are just 35-56 (.385) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 6-41 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 54-6 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Pirates are just 123-9 (.932) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 2,366 strikeouts in 11,884 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 1,542 strikeouts in 7,833 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .955 (2,079 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .302 (5,215 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Pirates hitters have 86 strikeouts in 235 PA’s (37%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .679 (5,215 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,613 of 17,797 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have 226 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 465.8
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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