- The Twins are -175 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | MAS2
The Baltimore Orioles (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Orioles are 88-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 72-87 ATS.
Orioles vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 2-9, 5.63 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 15-9, 4.16 ERA
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -105 | +135 |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -115 | -160 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ramon Urias has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+35.50 Units / 161% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Runs Under in his last 17 games (+17.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 84 games (+19.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 112 games (+15.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 150 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 away games (+3.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 93 games (+14.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 84-75 against the Run Line (+14.2 Units / 7.42% ROI).
- 88-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -3.69% ROI
- 85-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +18.45 Units / 10.62% ROI
- 61-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -32.45 Units / -18.65% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 72-87 against the Run Line (-19.35 Units / -9.65% ROI).
- 82-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -7.86% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.65 Units / 3.26% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.5 Units / -11.74% ROI
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has a strikeout rate of 60% (9 SO in 15 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (4 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just .000 (0/10) against Cade Povich in his last start — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Cade Povich has walked 25 of 235 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Cade Povich has a strikeout rate of 34% (30 SO in 87 PAs) this month (4 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (239/659) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (139/392) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has walked 38 of 745 batters (5%) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .259 (97-for-375) against Pablo Lopez’s non-fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 11th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 60-48 (.556) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 33-27 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Orioles are 213-15 (.934) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Orioles are 66-23 (.742) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are just 27-37 (.422) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 139-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Orioles are 60-33 (.619) against the run line (24.1% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins have scored 1.76 runs per game (564/321) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Twins hitters are slugging .228 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Twins are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .772 (2,925 PA’s) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Orioles have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Orioles pitchers won 41% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 867 of 11,978 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 424 of 5,950 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 92 of 1,418 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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