- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: ATV+
The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 57-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 39-46 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 9-4, 3.46 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-3, 2.90 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -105 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -145 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 72 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 70 games (+21.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 69 games (+19.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 71 games (+15.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+13.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 71 games (+28.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.14 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+2.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 47-40 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 6.35% ROI).
- 57-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.05% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -9% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 39-46 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -7.37% ROI).
- 47-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -9.44% ROI
- 29-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.4 Units / -29.54% ROI
- 52-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.15 Units / 21.36% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Whit Merrifield (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (308/865) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .193 (133-for-688) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (103/300) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (437/1,364) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (65/97) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .370 (135 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .645 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 84.7 MPH (229 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (193/441) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 9-18 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 50-6 (.893) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Phillies are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are 29-47 (.382) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .312 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,207 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Phillies have scored first in 75% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Phillies are 9-18 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .822 (2,338 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .378 (1,145 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Braves are batting .276 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 20 of 461 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .138 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (1,971 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (1,971 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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