- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Braves
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-115) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 58-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 39-47 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-2, 2.30 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 1-4, 5.63 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 8 +100 | -105 |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -120 | -115 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 73 games (+23.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 71 games (+22.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 70 games (+20.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 72 games (+16.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 72 games (+26.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.14 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-40 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.18% ROI).
- 58-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.9 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -1.24% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 39-47 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -8.31% ROI).
- 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.2 Units / -10.29% ROI
- 30-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.4 Units / -28.16% ROI
- 52-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 19.83% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (224/369) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .361 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .487 — 94th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .252 (36 Total Bases / 143 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — 95th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .327 (124 Total Bases / 379 ABs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 89th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has limited playing time.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 9-18 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Phillies are 4-23 (.148) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Braves are 34-67 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 65-46 (.586) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 100% of their games (90.3% ROI) when slight moneyline underdogs (+101 to +149) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OBP of .379 (1,151 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .790 (7,107 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Braves are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters are slugging .461 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 17 of 456 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .145 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (2,005 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (2,005 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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