- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: NSPA | BSSE | MLBN | ESPN+
The Philadelphia Phillies (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Sunday, July 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 58-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 40-47 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Michael Mercado 1-0, 1.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 6-2, 1.84 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | -175 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 74 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games (+21.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 71 games (+18.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 73 games (+15.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 72 games (+13.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 73 games (+27.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.14 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+2.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 15 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-41 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 6.18% ROI).
- 58-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.9 Units / 8.08% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -8.91% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.21% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 40-47 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -7.16% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.2 Units / -9.54% ROI
- 30-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.5 Units / -28.99% ROI
- 53-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.95 Units / 20.64% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Mercado (PHI) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Mercado has limited playing time.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .067 (4-for-60) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 22 of 453 right-handed batters (5%) since the 2022 season — tied for 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 8% — 94th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OBP of just .253 (451 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .301 — 97th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 48 of 313 left-handed batters (15%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 9-19 (.321) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Phillies are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Braves are 17-81 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 34-67 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (4,789 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,040 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 92% of their games (84.3% ROI) when underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .825 (2,372 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Braves are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Braves hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 20 of 461 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.23 (800.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (2,027 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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