- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Phillies vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Brewers TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Phillies are 90-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 78-71 ATS.
Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-6, 3.08 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 6-8, 4.58 ERA
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 8 +100 | -120 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -120 | +100 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 49 games (+33.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+22.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Walks Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 145 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 149 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games at home (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 83 of their last 149 games (+7.49 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 73-76 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -3.17% ROI).
- 90-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 1.65% ROI
- 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.63% ROI
- 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -2.69% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 78-71 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 1.76% ROI).
- 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 6.09% ROI
- 78-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 6.63% ROI
- 62-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24 Units / -14.55% ROI
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (608/1,155) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (141/246) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (239/402) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .500 (9-for-18) against Ranger Suarez in his last start — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .209 — second Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 30 ABsending on a two-strike cutter from Aaron Civale. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .132 (10 GB hits out of 76 GBs) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 99th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 78-12 (.867) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 92-164 (.359) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 36-79 (.313) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Brewers are 44-37 (.543) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Brewers are 33-27 (.550) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 44-32 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,396 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,778 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,778 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,592 of their 5,706 plate appearances (28%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have been successful in just 69% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 80%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.70 (2773.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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