Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 16

Milwaukee Brewers' William Contreras hits a two-run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants Sunday, May 28, 2023, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)
  • The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
  • Phillies vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Phillies / Brewers TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI

The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Phillies are 90-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 78-71 ATS.

Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-6, 3.08 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 6-8, 4.58 ERA

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +145O 8 +100-120
Brewers +1.5 -175U 8 -120+100

Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 49 games (+33.40 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+22.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Walks Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 145 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 149 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games at home (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 83 of their last 149 games (+7.49 Units / 4% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 73-76 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -3.17% ROI).

  • 90-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 1.65% ROI
  • 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.63% ROI
  • 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -2.69% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 78-71 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 1.76% ROI).

  • 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 6.09% ROI
  • 78-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 6.63% ROI
  • 62-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24 Units / -14.55% ROI

Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 0.5 +250 0.5 -300
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +340 0.5 -450
Gary Sanchez (MIL) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Trea Turner (PHI) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Willy Adames (MIL) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trea Turner (PHI) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Alec Bohm (PHI) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
William Contreras (MIL) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Gary Sanchez (MIL) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Willy Adames (MIL) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225

Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Civale (MIL) 4.5 -140 4.5 +105
Ranger Suarez (PHI) 4.5 -120 4.5 -110

Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (608/1,155) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (141/246) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (239/402) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed batters batted .500 (9-for-18) against Ranger Suarez in his last start — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .209 — second Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 30 ABsending on a two-strike cutter from Aaron Civale. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .132 (10 GB hits out of 76 GBs) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 99th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 398.5

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Phillies are 78-12 (.867) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.

The Phillies are 92-164 (.359) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .279.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Brewers are 36-79 (.313) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Brewers are 44-37 (.543) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Brewers are 33-27 (.550) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.

The Brewers are 44-32 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,396 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,778 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,778 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,592 of their 5,706 plate appearances (28%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Brewers hitters have been successful in just 69% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 80%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.70 (2773.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
  • Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.