- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Brewers
- Phillies vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Brewers TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI | TBS
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+115) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Phillies are 90-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-71 ATS.
Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 15-6, 2.62 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 7-10, 4.49 ERA
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -120 | -135 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 +100 | +115 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 50 games (+32.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+20.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+17.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Frankie Montas has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 24 games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 58 games (+18.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 146 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 150 games (+12.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games at home (+11.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 73-77 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -3.7% ROI).
- 90-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.19% ROI
- 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.59% ROI
- 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -2.67% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-71 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 2.24% ROI).
- 87-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.65 Units / 6.57% ROI
- 78-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 6.59% ROI
- 62-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24 Units / -14.45% ROI
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (MIL) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +125 | 7.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .196 (326 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .156 (48-for-308) against Zack Wheeler this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .430 (327 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (35-for-234) against Zack Wheeler versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has struck out 50% (10/20) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (4-for-40) against Frankie Montas in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .223 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .083 (2-for-24) against Frankie Montas in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .214 — 98th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has walked 4 of 20 left-handed batters (20%) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 78-12 (.867) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Phillies are 12-113 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Phillies are 37-18 (.673) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 36-79 (.313) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Brewers are 50-124 (.287) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 99-78 (.559) after a win since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Brewers are 87-63 (.580) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies are batting .320 on the road this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .786 (3,653 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .327 (1,480 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,604 of their 5,743 plate appearances (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Brewers are batting just .238 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .233 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies pitchers have walked 402 of 5,594 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.69 (2782.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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