- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 94-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 87-72 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-7, 3.17 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 5-1, 2.23 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 8 +100 | -190 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -105 | U 8 -120 | +155 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+16.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 40 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games at home (+12.10 Units / 81% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+15.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+6.70 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 78-81 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 94-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 0.42% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -3.95% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 87-72 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 1.31% ROI).
- 69-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.97% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -1.79% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Stone Garrett (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (644/1,219) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (247/418) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 126 of Ranger Suarez’s 295 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 43%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (356/666) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 60% — third Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 52% (674/1,306) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 52% (572/1,107) on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (294/842) against Trevor Williams on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 52% (440/842) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 12-117 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 81-14 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 27-24 (.529) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 96-144 (.400) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 36-64 (.360) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Nationals are just 59-238 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,875 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .942 (2,195 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,619 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Nationals hitters have just 2,471 strikeouts in 12,373 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 436 of 5,933 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .233 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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