- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSPA | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 94-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 88-72 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 16-7, 2.58 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 10-12, 4.02 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -110 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -110 | +165 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 69.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 31 games (+15.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 41 games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games at home (+11.10 Units / 69% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 away games (+8.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+3.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 152 games (+7.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 78-82 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -4.03% ROI).
- 94-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.29% ROI
- 76-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -4.68% ROI
- 76-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -4.58% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 88-72 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 1.78% ROI).
- 70-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -1.05% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.24% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -2.42% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Austin Hays (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Austin Hays (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (2,480/5,818) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .439 (362 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,778/4,197) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (39/236) against Zack Wheeler this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .355 (49-for-138) against MacKenzie Gore when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed an OBP of .429 (156 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (99/344) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (138/462) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Phillies are 81-14 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Nationals are just 59-238 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 96-144 (.400) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,882 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .747 (8,550 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Phillies are batting .306 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies hitters are slugging .422 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 1,091 strikeouts in 5,601 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,619 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Nationals hitters have just 694 strikeouts in 3,654 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .941 (2,209 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .341 (4,265 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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