- The Phillies are + favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Philadelphia Phillies (+) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Phillies are 62-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 52-44 ATS.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-4, 3.42 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-5, 5.08 ERA
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | + |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | + |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 79 games (+21.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 81 games (+20.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+16.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 80 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 51-45 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 4.41% ROI).
- 62-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 6.33% ROI
- 43-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -9.57% ROI
- 48-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 0.57% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 52-44 against the Run Line (+4.86 Units / 3.88% ROI).
- 48-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -1.12% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -7.94% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.58 Units / 0.55% ROI
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rafael Marchan (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (316/894) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 156 of Aaron Nola’s 317 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 49%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .193 (136-for-704) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Aaron Nola’s breaking pitches (344/582) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (5/84) against Martin Perez this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .789 (56 Total Bases / 71 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .435 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .411 (46-for-112) against Martin Perez versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of .452 (126 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 53-6 (.898) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Phillies are 25-8 (.758) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Phillies are 9-22 (.290) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are 15-9 (.625) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 95-113 (.457) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Pirates are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .327 (2,439 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 417 strikeouts in 1,235 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .301 (4,814 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 138 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 257 of 3,549 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,472 of 16,149 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have 159 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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