- The Phillies are + favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Philadelphia Phillies () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Phillies are 62-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 53-44 ATS.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 7-4, 2.91 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 80 games (+22.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+21.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 79 games (+17.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 81 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 53 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 51-46 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 3.47% ROI).
- 62-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 5.24% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -8.54% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.47% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 53-44 against the Run Line (+5.86 Units / 4.64% ROI).
- 49-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.18% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.52 Units / -0.49% ROI
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rafael Marchan (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (183/307) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (76/123) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (271/533) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 52% (145/280) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
46% of Luis Ortiz’s fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH (287 batted balls) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (122/273) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 32% — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 53-6 (.898) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 9-22 (.290) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 44-58 (.431) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are 15-9 (.625) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Pirates are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 88% of their games (65.7% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 37 extra-base hits out of 141 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 10.59 (26.1 IP) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.
Phillies pitchers have walked 729 of 9,663 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,476 of 16,194 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Pirates pitchers this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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